trade_flows
Equipment moved before the factory opened. We read real Eurostat Comext customs data as a precursor signal for industrial buildout - machinery imports rising before a plant is declared operational.
Real sample
Real Eurostat Comext series, public API, no auth - Hungary's imports of finished lithium-ion cells/batteries (CN8 850760) from China, last 14 months, verified live 2026-09-02:
| Month | Value (EUR) |
|---|---|
| 2025-11 | 98,633,818 |
| 2025-12 | 92,178,607 |
| 2026-01 | 131,755,538 |
| 2026-02 | 132,041,010 |
| 2026-03 | 150,253,006 |
| 2026-04 | 176,487,045 |
| 2026-05 | 160,383,201 |
| 2026-06 | 199,587,410 |
Real, rising trend (roughly doubled over 8 months) - this is the confirmatory (component-dependency, S2) signal. The precursor (equipment-machinery, S1) signal was tested against its own pre-registered retrospective check (Hungary should show equipment inflow in the 2023-2025 CATL/BYD buildout window) and did not validate: the only available proxy CN8 code (8479.82, generic industrial mixing/crushing/grinding machinery - there is no clean heading for battery-manufacturing equipment specifically) shows its real escalation starting mid-2025, later than the buildout window, which is inconsistent with a leading indicator. Reported as NO_CLEAN_PROXY_AVAILABLE, not forced into a positive reading.
Method
Eurostat Comext public API (DS-045409), monthly CN8-level trade values, reporter x partner x product. Two planned signals: EQUIPMENT_INFLOW (precursor, machinery codes) and COMPONENT_DEPENDENCY (confirmatory, finished-goods codes, shown above) - always with a real negative-control country and a written threshold before looking at results.
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